Barney vs. Ben

Bernake takes the hill and Ive actually enjoyed the testamony. Barney Frank and Ron Paul being my favorite. There a lot issues that are facing the country

Notice we are starting to get back into the value in the sp. The ndx still looks pretty strong.

He speaks

Bernake that is. Another important development is the dollar. Here is what the euro did today.

Its been such a long time....

since I've updated the blog. I'm taking my time, movin along..................

Alright, so my primary concerns are Bernake, the yen, and discpline. I'm also concerned that we didnt make a new low after 1030est. Which means every pumper on earth is going to try and rally the market.

CRUSHED

The yen should be watched closely. Many players are probably short it because Japan isnt raising rates. However, if they are long bonds and have to sell the yen could fly a bit. We shall see.

Bonds were smoked today in a rout that was a long time coming. Is FCB buying finally coming to an end? Who knows. Its hard to make a case for US bonds when the spread between the US and ROW is closing. How about the MBS players? Convexity problems? Maybe they need run some more monte carlo simulations. Note to all math genui. When the mortgage balloons from xxx trillion of debt to xxxxxxx trillion in 4 years no model is going to be able to predict the outcome.

Housing is done 3 percent. Banks 1.2 percent. Reits crushed 3.5

Yen is also finally getting a bid. I think its fair to say that its the most undervalued currency in the world. Corporate profits in Japan are rising and unemployment is 3.8 percent! Insane.

Decent selling, but it doesn't look that concentrated and the stem model at sentiment trader is getting oversold. The transports and housing are getting crushed followed by banks. The concensus is that rates are going to have to raise because inflation is to stubborn around the world. I think a lot of it has to do with high resource prices as opposed to labor, but thats just my opinion.

The aftermath of jobs.

ok. The jobs number came out at 157,00. Its about as bland as expected. Actually the market reaction doesn't seem as robust as you might think. 70,000 contracts is a lot volume, but the delta isn't that great. There is some patches of selling.

If there is one thing I have noticed is that sp is struggling around these levels, but the longer we consolidate the better chance we have of going higher.

The only other worry for the bulls is yields. They are in a firm downtrend and that will way on the markets at somepoint.

Breakdown

After a couple of days of failure at new highs and chop, markets sold off after a pretty sizeable surge at the open on good homes sales.

Looks like the yen may be bottoming here. Its tried to get firmly through 82.50 a couple of time the last week or so and can't. With record short interest I would watch it like a hawk.

Bonds are moving lower. 5 percent ten year is likely. The bund is leading and bonds following.

Had the birthday workout yesterday and feel shot today.

Selling looks like its drying up around 1515

Obviously more big buying in the small caps. They are playing catch up to the dow. MA continues to rule everything and nothing seems to be coming out of china. Or should I say that we will be allowed to borrow money forever.

AAPL is a on tear. Now around 115. The money supply around the world is growing by leaps and bounds.